Document Type

Thesis - Open Access

Award Date

2016

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

Department

Economics

First Advisor

Matthew Diersen

Keywords

basis, carry, farmer marketings, grain stocks, storage

Abstract

This research explores the relationship between quarterly grain stocks and monthly grain marketings. Reviewing when, how, and why stocks move from on-farm and off-farm inventories, an interpretation of quarterly commodity disappearance and crop marketings is formed. An explanatory model is first developed for farmer marketings, where price expectations are used to assess market signals to change ownership of crops. The model is applied to South Dakota corn, soybeans, and wheat from 1985 through 2015. The subsequent analysis contributes to a model that explains quarterly changes in stocks in terms of supply levels and the expected effect from marketings on disappearance. An expected basis function is developed as an explanatory variable, but market indicators are dominated by strong seasonal patterns in both disappearance and marketings.

A disparity between on-farm and off-farm disappearance is identified, the latter being intractable to quantify. A disparity between marketings and on-farm disappearance suggests a large portion of off-farm stocks are owned by farmers, potentially creating storage constraints at off-farm locations.

Library of Congress Subject Headings

Grain -- Storage -- South Dakota -- Statistics

Grain -- South Dakota -- Marketing -- Statistics

Farm produce -- South Dakota -- Marketing

Grain trade

Description

Includes bibliographical references (page 50-52)

Format

application/pdf

Number of Pages

60

Publisher

South Dakota State University

Rights

Copyright © 2016 Tyler Holmquist

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