Title

Session 09: Forecasting During Uncertain Times

Presenter Information/ Coauthors Information

Lance Cundy, Federal Reserve Bank

Presentation Type

Invited

Track

Methodology

Abstract

COVID has generated uncertainty with economic and financial models and their data. With institutions and individuals changing behavior, there is risk that underlying data generating processes have changed. As a result, (i) models built prior to COVID may no longer be appropriate to make reasonable forecasts, and (ii) data from the COVID period may not be suitable to forecast future behavior. In this session, we will discuss items to consider when making forecasts during these uncertain times. Through various examples, we will explore how to assess model performance and examine solutions to overcome the challenges created by uncertainty.

Start Date

2-8-2022 2:30 PM

End Date

2-8-2022 3:25 PM

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Feb 8th, 2:30 PM Feb 8th, 3:25 PM

Session 09: Forecasting During Uncertain Times

Pasque 255

COVID has generated uncertainty with economic and financial models and their data. With institutions and individuals changing behavior, there is risk that underlying data generating processes have changed. As a result, (i) models built prior to COVID may no longer be appropriate to make reasonable forecasts, and (ii) data from the COVID period may not be suitable to forecast future behavior. In this session, we will discuss items to consider when making forecasts during these uncertain times. Through various examples, we will explore how to assess model performance and examine solutions to overcome the challenges created by uncertainty.