Thesis - Open Access
Master of Science (MS)
basis, carry, farmer marketings, grain stocks, storage
This research explores the relationship between quarterly grain stocks and monthly grain marketings. Reviewing when, how, and why stocks move from on-farm and off-farm inventories, an interpretation of quarterly commodity disappearance and crop marketings is formed. An explanatory model is first developed for farmer marketings, where price expectations are used to assess market signals to change ownership of crops. The model is applied to South Dakota corn, soybeans, and wheat from 1985 through 2015. The subsequent analysis contributes to a model that explains quarterly changes in stocks in terms of supply levels and the expected effect from marketings on disappearance. An expected basis function is developed as an explanatory variable, but market indicators are dominated by strong seasonal patterns in both disappearance and marketings.
A disparity between on-farm and off-farm disappearance is identified, the latter being intractable to quantify. A disparity between marketings and on-farm disappearance suggests a large portion of off-farm stocks are owned by farmers, potentially creating storage constraints at off-farm locations.
Library of Congress Subject Headings
Grain -- Storage -- South Dakota -- Statistics
Grain -- South Dakota -- Marketing -- Statistics
Farm produce -- South Dakota -- Marketing
Includes bibliographical references (page 50-52)
Number of Pages
South Dakota State University
Copyright © 2016 Tyler Holmquist
Holmquist, Tyler, "Relationship of Grain Stocks and Farmer Marketings" (2016). Theses and Dissertations. 1045.