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Document Type

Thesis - University Access Only

Award Date


Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)



First Advisor

Bashir A. Qasmi


Global demand for fuel ethanol has increased significantly over the last decade. The U.S. was a net importer of ethanol until 2009. However, the U.S. has emerged as a net exporter since then. Accordingly, it is important to analyze the bilateral ethanol trade between U.S. and its major export destinations (Canada and Brazil). Main objective of this study is to identify factors influencing the bilateral U.S. ethanol trade with Canada, and Brazil as well as analyzing the impacts of these factors on U.S. ethanol trade with Canada, and Brazil. A system of simultaneous equations consisting of U.S. net export of ethanol to Canada, and Brazil are estimated. Using quarterly time series data for 2001- 2012 time periods, U.S. net ethanol export model was estimated with three-stage least squares (3SLS). The results suggest that U.S. net exports of ethanol to Canada, and Brazil are mainly driven by ethanol mandates rather than world crude price. U.S. net export of ethanol to Canada was impacted significantly by Canadian GDP and insignificantly by U.S. ethanol price. In contrast, the impact of Brazilian GDP on U.S. net ethanol export to Brazil was insignificant and that of relative price of ethanol was significant. Ethanol related policy variables including Canadian participation in Kyoto protocol, Canadian federal ethanol producer and consumer incentive, and world sugar prices were found not to have any statistically impact on U.S. net ethanol exports to Canada, and Brazil.

Library of Congress Subject Headings

Ethanol fuel industry.
United States -- Commerce -- Canada.
Canada -- Commerce -- United States.
United States -- Commerce -- Brazil.
Brazil -- Commerce -- United States.


Includes bibliographical references (pages 60-68)



Number of Pages



South Dakota State University


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