Document Type

Thesis - Open Access

Award Date


Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)


Physical Education


For the purpose of differentiating among future high school basketball player success from individual varsity point production, this research explored the possibilities of developing a predictive device to aid in team and squad selection. During the years of 1961 through 1968, thirty juniors and twenty- 1 one seniors of the Rapid City High School basketball varsity teams—who had completed the sophomore, junior, and senior basketball seasons-furnished the data for the formularization of three predictive equations from the relationship of individual sophomore game statistics and varsity point production. I n the development of the multiple regression equations, five predictor variables, namely, successful field goal average per game, attempted free throw average per game, successful free throw average per game, field goal percentage, and rebound percentage were correlated with the success variable as measured by varsity point production. In the statistical analysis, the most significant predictor of the three developed regression equations with regard to estimating varsity point production was the junior-senior classification. The final phase of the research entailed the use of the junior senior predictive equation for the calculation of the estimated points pertaining to a specific sophomore basketball squad. For future varsity high school player performance, the predicted points of each squad member were evaluated by interpretations of excellent, good, average, and poor categories determined by previous comparisons of player success as measured by varsity point estimation. The research design appears to serve its purpose with regard to differentiating among future high school basketball playing success as measured by estimated varsity point production per quarter. Although there is reason to believe that similar statistical approaches could be· used to formulate an objective tool for evaluation purposes, it is noted that each coach should form his own success indices to suit his needs and player talent.

Library of Congress Subject Headings

Basketball -- South Dakota -- Rapid City
School sports -- South Dakota -- Rapid City



Number of Pages



South Dakota State University