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Yunqing Wang

Document Type

Thesis - University Access Only

Award Date


Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

Department / School


First Advisor

Bashir A. Qasmi


China's future role in the world wheat market partially depends on its future wheat production. In this study, Chinese wheat production was analyzed by developing aggregated and disaggregated models using the data from 1981-1997. The analysis showed: a) industrialization did not have significant adverse impact on wheat planted area; b) wheat procurement price and the lagged wheat- planted area had a positive relationship with wheat-planted- area; c) wheat yields have increased over time; d) the government "grain-bag" policy did not have any significant impact on wheat production during the sample period. China's wheat production for years 1998-2005 was projected under three alternative scenarios: a) scenario 1 assumed real GDP (RGDP) to increase at 4.1 percent per annum and real wheat procurement price (RWP) to stay at the 1997 level ; b) scenario 2 assumed RGDP to increase at 4.6 percent and RWP to decrease 0.5 percent annually; and c) scenario 3 assumed RGDP to increase at 4.1 percent and RWP to decrease at 2 percent annually. All three scenarios assumed wheat yield to increase at 1.4 percent annually. Under scenarios 1 and 2, wheat area, yield and production are all projected to increase during the projection period. Under scenario 3, wheat area is projected to decrease by about 2 percent but wheat production is projected to increase due to yield increase. Chinese wheat production is projected to exceed domestic consumption by 8 to 15 mmt by 2005 under the alternative scenarios.

Library of Congress Subject Headings

Wheat -- China
Wheat -- Yields -- China -- Forecasting




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