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Asia, China, wheat production, grains


Wheat production in China is analyzed using a seven-region model and data for 1978-1997. The empirical results indicate; 1) the area planted to wheat in China is responsive to the real wheat procurement price, 2) contrary to prior expectations, the growth in GNP, a proxy for industrialization and urbanization, did not seem to impact the wheat area significantly, 3) wheat yield showed a significant upward trend in all regions over time, depicting combined impacts of increased chemical fertilizer use, expansion of irrigated areas, increased investment, and other technological improvements, and 4) Chinese wheat production is projected to range from 132.33 to 139.78 million metric tons for year 2005 under three alternate scenarios. Given these projections, China is expected to continue importing at least 9.5 million metric tons of wheat per year through 2005. Annual Chinese wheat imports could reach 16.9 million metric tons by 2005 if China completely liberalizes the wheat sector after joining WTO.


Department of Economics, South Dakota State University

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