Thesis - Open Access
Master of Science (MS)
Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
Energy Management System, Hidden Markov Model, Intra-Day Forecasting, Microgrids
Accurate solar irradiance forecasting is the key to accurate estimation of solar power output at any given time. The accuracy of this information is especially crucial in diesel-PV based remote microgrids with batteries to determine the set points of the batteries and generators for their optimal dispatch. This, in turn, is related directly to the overall operating cost because both an overestimation and an underestimation of the irradiance means additional operating costs for either suddenly ramping up the backup resources or causing under-utilization of the available PV power output. Accurately predicting the solar irradiance is not an easy task because of the sporadic nature of the irradiance that is received at the solar panel surfaces. Handling the dynamic nature of the irradiance pattern requires a strong and flexible model that can precisely capture the irradiance trend in any given location at a given time. Usually, such a robust model requires a lot of input variables like weather data including humidity, temperature, pressure, wind speed, wind direction, etc. and/or large inventory of satellite images of clouds over a long period of time. The expensive sensors and database tools for collecting and storing such huge information may not be installed in remote locations. Therefore, this thesis prioritizes on developing a simple method requiring a minimum input to accurately forecast the solar irradiance for remote microgrids.
Number of Pages
South Dakota State University
In Copyright - Educational Use Permitted
Bajracharya, Abhilasha, "Intra-Day Solar Irradiance Forecasting for Remote Microgrids Using Hidden Markov Model" (2019). Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 3406.