Document Type

Thesis - Open Access

Award Date

2016

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

Department / School

Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering

First Advisor

Laurent M Ahiablame

Keywords

climate, hydrology, land use, watershed

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use change on the hydrology of South Dakota’s watersheds using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The study analyzed the hydrologic impacts of climate and land use changes in two ways. The first aspect consists of characterizing hydrological changes between two recent decades in three representative watersheds – Bad River watershed, Skunk Creek watershed and Upper Big Sioux River watershed. Two historical land use maps (NLCD 1992 and 2011) were used to represent land use change on these watersheds, and two historical climate datasets (1981-1990 and 2005-2014) were used to create SWAT models for each watershed. Results showed that due to historical land use and climate variations the annual water balance components mostly increased in the 2000s compared to 1980s. Between the 1980s and 2000s, seasonal variation in hydrology mostly increased during the wet season (i.e., May to October) in all three watersheds. Spatial analysis revealed that the hydrological components increased with a decrease in grassland in the watersheds, except in Skunk Creek watershed. The second aspect was to quantify the influence of future climate and land use changes on hydrological processes in the James River Watershed located in South and North Dakotas. A set of 42 scenarios of future projected land use and climate changes were developed under three emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) to represent mid (2046-2065) and end (2080-2099) of the 21st century. Corresponding land use maps (2055 and 2090) were derived from the FOREcasting SCEnarios (FORE-SCE) model to represent land use conditions for mid and end of the century. Projected climate data were used from three general circulation models (CGCM3.1, GFDL-CM2.1, and HADCM3) for the mid-century (2046-2065) and end of the century (2080-2099). The scenarios were designed in a way that (1) land use was changed while climate conditions remained constant, (2) land use remained constant under a changing climate, and (3) both land use and climate were changed simultaneously. Results showed that future climate change will likely have more influence on hydrology compared to future land use change. The combined effects of land use and climate changes would intensify changes in hydrological processes of the region in the near future.

Library of Congress Subject Headings

Watersheds -- Climatic factors -- South Dakota -- Bad River Watershed

Watersheds -- Climatic factors -- South Dakota -- Skunk Creek Watershed

Watersheds -- Climatic factors -- Big Sioux River Watershed (S.D. and Iowa)

Landscape changes -- South Dakota -- Bad River Watershed

Landscape changes -- South Dakota -- Skunk Creek Watershed

Landscape changes -- Big Sioux River Watershed (S.D. and Iowa)

Climatic changes -- James River Watershed (N.D. and S.D.) -- Forecasting

Landscape changes -- James River Watershed (N.D. and S.D.) -- Forecasting

Climatic changes -- South Dakota

Land use, Rural -- South Dakota

Hydrologic cycle

Description

Includes biographical references

Format

application/pdf

Number of Pages

172

Publisher

South Dakota State University

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Rights Statement

In Copyright