Off-campus South Dakota State University users: To download campus access theses, please use the following link to log into our proxy server with your South Dakota State University ID and password.
Non-South Dakota State University users: Please talk to your librarian about requesting this thesis through interlibrary loan.
Document Type
Thesis - University Access Only
Award Date
2001
Degree Name
Master of Science (MS)
Department / School
Economics
First Advisor
Bashir A. Qasmi
Abstract
China's future role in the world wheat market partially depends on its future wheat production. In this study, Chinese wheat production was analyzed by developing aggregated and disaggregated models using the data from 1981-1997. The analysis showed: a) industrialization did not have significant adverse impact on wheat planted area; b) wheat procurement price and the lagged wheat- planted area had a positive relationship with wheat-planted- area; c) wheat yields have increased over time; d) the government "grain-bag" policy did not have any significant impact on wheat production during the sample period. China's wheat production for years 1998-2005 was projected under three alternative scenarios: a) scenario 1 assumed real GDP (RGDP) to increase at 4.1 percent per annum and real wheat procurement price (RWP) to stay at the 1997 level ; b) scenario 2 assumed RGDP to increase at 4.6 percent and RWP to decrease 0.5 percent annually; and c) scenario 3 assumed RGDP to increase at 4.1 percent and RWP to decrease at 2 percent annually. All three scenarios assumed wheat yield to increase at 1.4 percent annually. Under scenarios 1 and 2, wheat area, yield and production are all projected to increase during the projection period. Under scenario 3, wheat area is projected to decrease by about 2 percent but wheat production is projected to increase due to yield increase. Chinese wheat production is projected to exceed domestic consumption by 8 to 15 mmt by 2005 under the alternative scenarios.
Library of Congress Subject Headings
Wheat -- China
Wheat -- Yields -- China -- Forecasting
Format
application/pdf
Publisher
South Dakota State University
Recommended Citation
Wang, Yunqing, "China's Wheat Production: Analysis and Projection for 1998-2005" (2001). Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 5934.
https://openprairie.sdstate.edu/etd/5934