Vulnerability of Northern Prairie Wetlands to Climate Change

Authors

W.Carter Johnson, South Dakota State University
Bruce V. Millett, South Dakota State University
Tagir Gilmanov, South Dakota State University
Richard A. Voldseth, USDA Forest Service
Glenn R. Guntenspergen, U.S. Geological Survey
David E. Naugle, University of Montana, Missoula

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

10-2005

Keywords

Prairie Wetlands, Climate Change, Potholes, Waterfowl, Wetland Restoration

Abstract

The prairie pothole region (PPR) lies in the heart of North America and contains millions of glacially formed, depressional wetlands embedded in a landscape matrix of natural grassland and agriculture. These wetlands provide valuable ecosystem services and produce 50% to 80% of the continent’s ducks.We explored the broad spatial and temporal patterns across the PPR between climate and wetland water levels and vegetation by applying a wetland simulation model (WETSIM) to 18 stations with 95-year weather records. Simulations suggest that the most productive habitat for breeding waterfowl would shift under a drier climate from the center of the PPR (the Dakotas and southeastern Saskatchewan) to the wetter eastern and northern fringes, areas currently less productive or where most wetlands have been drained. Unless these wetlands are protected and restored, there is little insurance for waterfowl against future climate warming. WETSIM can assist wetland managers in allocating restoration dollars in an uncertain climate future.

Volume

55

Issue

10

First Page

863

Last Page

873

Pages

10

DOI of Published Version

10.1641/0006-3568(2005)055[0863:VONPWT]2.0.CO;2

Recommended Citation

Johnson, W.Carter; Millett, Bruce V.; Gilmanov, Tagir; Voldseth, Richard A.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; and Naugle, David E., "Vulnerability of Northern Prairie Wetlands to Climate Change" (2005). Natural Resource Management Faculty Publications. 253.
https://openprairie.sdstate.edu/nrm_pubs/253