Nabin Basnet

Document Type

Thesis - University Access Only

Award Date

2011

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

Department / School

Civil and Environmental Engineering

Abstract

US Geological Survey (USGS) developed climatic scenarios (1999), which were used for the lake level frequency analysis of the Waubay Lakes chain located in Northeastern, South Dakota. Based on recent studies, it was found that the predetermined climate scenarios found for the lakes cannot be used for the stream flow analysis. A different set of climatic scenarios has to be developed for the frequency analysis of stream flow. The objective of the study is to develop five different climatic scenarios based on the annual accumulated amount of precipitation for 8-year periods for Aberdeen, SD, for the years from 1928 as through 2008. The developed climatic scenarios can be used by water resources managers and planners for forecasting the future possible extreme climate conditions and also for the stream level frequency analysis of that region. Daily precipitation data were used to calculate annual precipitation based on the water year for the period of 1928-2008. Using these annual precipitation data, the sequential 8-year climatic periods were developed. Five climatic periods were selected from these developed 8-year periods. For the defined time interval, the period 1993-2000 was selected as the wettest 8-year period and had an accumulated precipitation amount of 189.72 inches (23.71 inches/year). Similarly, the period 1969-1976 was selected as the driest period with an accumulated precipitation of 127.63 inches (15.95 inches/year). The other identified climatic periods are Moderately Wet (1942-1949), Average (1977-1984) and Moderately Dry (1959-1966). Statistical analyses were performed for the identified annual and 8-year periods using the accumulated amount and number of days with precipitation. The data show that, the summer and spring seasons have higher amounts and number of days with precipitation as compared to that of fall and winter seasons. So, the precipitation records of summer and spring seasons were considered as key to defining a period as wet or dry. Also, for the identified climatic scenarios, the number of days with precipitation shows different characteristics than that found for the accumulated amount of precipitation. The climatic period which was defined based on the accumulated amount of precipitation is not the same as climatic scenarios based on the number of days with precipitation. The study also concluded an 8-year climatic scenario cannot be developed using single year annul precipitation and associated statistics. The climatic scenario developed using single year climatic data will overestimate or underestimate the 8-year climatic scenario.

Library of Congress Subject Headings

Aberdeen (S.D.) -- Climate

Evaporation (Meteorology) -- South Dakota -- Aberdeen

Precipitation (Meteorology) -- South Dakota -- Aberdeen

Hydrologic cycle -- South Dakota -- Aberdeen

Streamflow -- South Dakota

Format

application/pdf

Number of Pages

126

Publisher

South Dakota State University

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