Document Type
Dissertation - University Access Only
Award Date
2004
Degree Name
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Department / School
Biology
First Advisor
Carter Johnson
Abstract
Some areas of the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) will be more vulnerable than others to climate change. This research used the simulation model WETSIM 3.1, climate change data, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to determine the spatial and temporal sensitivity of semi-permanent wetlands to climate change. The PPR was subdivided into six relatively homogeneous ecoregions. Three weather stations with long[1]term (1906-2000) weather records were selected from each ecoregion to characterize the climate of each ecoregion. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) was used to determine the long-term climate trends across the ecoregions.
Indices for WETSIM were developed to enable ecological comparisons among ecoregions. These included hydroperiod, mean water depth, drought frequency, overflow, return time, and cover ratio. WETSIM as parameterized and tested using an intensively monitored semi-permanent wetland basin located in Stutsman County, North Dakota. Simulations were performed with historic weather data, temperature +3°C, and temperature + 3 °C combined with a ±20% change in precipitation.
The PPR experienced periods of drought (1930s) and deluge (1990s) during the twentieth century. Results from PPR weather data showed that most of the warming was attributed to greater increases in minimum temperatures and that precipitation increased toward the end of the century. Climate change scenarios indicated that model wetlands in drier portions of the PPR were more vulnerable to temperature increases. The model wetland was especially vulnerable to combined temperature increases and precipitation decreases. Only a small portion of the PPR (Iowa and Minnesota) would benefit from warmer temperatures and lower rainfall. Climate conditions best suited for highly productive wetlands would shift eastward and northward. The survival of wetland species during periods of changing climate will be determined in part by their abilities to disperse to new sites or to persist in place.
Library of Congress Subject Headings
Wetlands -- Prairie Pothole Region.
Climatic changes -- Prairie Pothole Region -- Simulation methods.
Publisher
South Dakota State University
Recommended Citation
Millett, Bruce Victor, "Vulnerability of Northern Prairie Wetlands to Climate Change" (2004). Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 1084.
https://openprairie.sdstate.edu/etd2/1084
Rights Statement
