Document Type

Thesis - University Access Only

Award Date

2010

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

Department / School

Mathematics and Statistics

Abstract

This thesis studies reject inference in credit scoring. Credit models are often built on only those applications that have been accepted. This creates a bias issue since much of the target population may not be included in the model building process. Reject inference techniques attempt to make an educated guess on the probability the rejected applicants would have actually been a good observation. The data set analyzed is a sub-prime credit mailing in 2008 and 2009 from CAPITAL Card Services. Several reject inference techniques are discussed and extrapolation, stratification, and clustering were used to analyze the data. The specific models will be analyzed and compared using receiver operating characteristic charts, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov Statistic, and bias estimates. The goal of the paper is to discover if some techniques other than a random mailing can provide good predictive power while having a lower initial cost.

Library of Congress Subject Headings

Consumer credit

Credit analysis -- Mathematical models

Credit scoring systems -- Mathematical models

Format

application/pdf

Number of Pages

62

Publisher

South Dakota State University

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